Publications

Estimating unobserved forces in mechanistic systems is a central task of scientific machine learning. Approximate Gaussian filtering methods that synthesize mechanistic and empirical information have shown remarkable capacity in jointly identifying latent processes together with the system state in a single forward-backward pass. The resulting latent force ODE filter framework channels information from observational data specifically into the unknown parts of the system. This work addresses open questions about calibration and stability of the method. We show that the joint posterior over state and force is the reweighted conventional latent force posterior. This uncovers a crucial dependence of the stability of the method on the prior variance of the system state, which effectively controls the flow of information from observations to the latent force through the mechanistic system. From this insight, we construct an improved algorithm that provides stable and calibrated plug-and-play inference. We demonstrate the improved framework on several simulated experimental settings.

The European electricity power grid is transitioning toward renewable energy sources, characterized by an increasing share of offshore and onshore wind and solar power. However, the weather dependency of these energy sources poses a challenge to grid stability, with so-called Dunkelflaute events—periods of low wind and solar power generation—being of particular concern due to their potential to cause electricity supply shortages. In this study, we investigate the impact of these events on the German electricity production in the years and decades to come. For this purpose, we adapt a recently developed generative deep learning framework to downscale climate simulations from the CMIP6 ensemble. We first compare their statistics to the historical record taken from ERA5 data. Next, we use these downscaled simulations to assess plausible future occurrences of Dunkelflaute events in Germany under the optimistic low (SSP2–4.5) and high (SSP5–8.5) emission scenarios. Our analysis indicates that both the frequency and duration of Dunkelflaute events in Germany in the ensemble mean are projected to remain largely unchanged compared to the historical period. This suggests that, under the considered climate scenarios, the associated risk is expected to remain stable throughout the century.

Appropriate time discretization is crucial for real-time applications of numerical optimal control, such as nonlinear model predictive control. However, if the discretization error strongly depends on the applied control input, meeting accuracy and sampling time requirements simultaneously can be challenging using classical discretization methods. In particular, neither fixed-grid nor adaptive-grid discretizations may be suitable, when they suffer from large integration error or exceed the prescribed sampling time, respectively. In this work, we take a first step at closing this gap by utilizing probabilistic numerical integrators to approximate the solution of the initial value problem, as well as the computational uncertainty associated with it, inside the optimal control problem (OCP). By taking the viewpoint of probabilistic numerics and propagating the numerical uncertainty in the cost, the OCP is reformulated such that the optimal input reduces the computational uncertainty insofar as it is beneficial for the control objective. The proposed approach is illustrated using a numerical example, and potential benefits and limitations are discussed.

Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have emerged as an efficient framework for uncertainty quantification and inference on dynamical systems. In this work, we explain the mathematical assumptions and detailed implementation schemes behind solving high-dimensional ODEs with a probabilistic numerical algorithm. This has not been possible before due to matrix-matrix operations in each solver step, but is crucial for scientifically relevant problems — most importantly, the solution of discretised partial differential equations. In a nutshell, efficient high-dimensional probabilistic ODE solutions build either on independence assumptions or on Kronecker structure in the prior model. We evaluate the resulting efficiency on a range of problems, including the probabilistic numerical simulation of a differential equation with millions of dimensions.

This work develops a class of probabilistic algorithms for the numerical solution of nonlinear, time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). Current state-of-the-art PDE solvers treat the space- and time-dimensions separately, serially, and with black-box algorithms, which obscures the interactions between spatial and temporal approximation errors and misguides the quantification of the overall error. To fix this issue, we introduce a probabilistic version of a technique called method of lines. The proposed algorithm begins with a Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods, which then interacts naturally with filtering-based probabilistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers because they share a common language: Bayesian inference. Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty becomes possible without losing the performance benefits of well-tuned ODE solvers. Thereby, we extend the toolbox of probabilistic programs for differential equation simulation to PDEs.

Probabilistic numerical methods (PNMs) solve numerical problems via probabilistic inference. They have been developed for linear algebra, optimization, integration and differential equation simulation. PNMs naturally incorporate prior information about a problem and quantify uncertainty due to finite computational resources as well as stochastic input. In this paper, we present ProbNum: a Python library providing state-of-the-art probabilistic numerical solvers. ProbNum enables custom composition of PNMs for specific problem classes via a modular design as well as wrappers for off-the-shelf use. Tutorials, documentation, developer guides and benchmarks are available online at www.probnum.org.